The article I posted before this one titled " A Resounding Strategic Failure for Iran"
is a very optimistic point of view and I pray that it be correct, but the following may
be a more practical and realistic approach
Anyone who thinks Saturday’s Iranian drone-missile barrage against Israel was
“the big attack” is mistaken and obviously not paying attention.
It was merely a test.
What did Iran learn? A few very useful facts.
Iran can, without any immediate consequence, shut down the airspace of nearly
the entire Middle East.
Iran can paralyze Israel as the entire country is forced to wait in/near shelters and
brace themselves for an unknown onslaught.
And Iran knows that with only some 200 drones and missiles, with Israel on high
alert, and the attack telegraphed to the world days in advance, it managed to do
the above but not
really penetrate Israel’s defensive umbrella.
Yet, this was NOT a military failure.
It was a military operation to both save face and back up their belligerent tone in
the aftermath of Israel’s elimination of a top IRGC general, and to test how many
drones and missiles it’ll take to overwhelm Israel’s and its allies’ defenses.
200 drones and missiles fired. How many came from Lebanon during the
Iranian onslaught? 50 or so. Yet Hezbollah posses more than 10,000 rockets!
Anyone still convinced that this was “the great attack” Iran has been promising
rather than a prelude to something far more devastating?!
What this means is that those folks like @JoeBiden parading the idea that
Israel ought to “pocket the win” for having successfully defended itself against
a major (but relatively minor) onslaught are simply telling Israel to set the stage
for the next round which will be inevitably worse and exact a significant human toll.
Because if Iran was brazen enough to attack Israel with pathetic slow-flying
drones waiting to be shot out of the sky although they possess a massive arsenal
of far more sophisticated missiles, why the hell would anyone assume, let alone
promote the notion that this is as far as Iran will go and therefore Iran should be
let off the hook with no consequence?!
Israel knows this. America does too. But politics is politics so electoral decisions
will determine how far Israel’s retaliatory hand can officially extend.
That said, considering Israel is in a Catch-22 — no response emboldens Iran,
too harsh a response weakens the anti-Iran coalition — we can expect to see
sabotage at Iran’s nuclear facilities on a level we have never seen before, ie
nearly total destruction to the point of being unusable (or maybe that’s just
wishful thinking).
Either way, none of that will change the simple fact that what we saw on Saturday
is a drop in the bucket compared to what Iran is actually capable of, which isn’t to
boost Iran’s Napoleon-sized ego but to reinforce why the corrupt and genocidal
Iranian regime under @khamenei_ir must be dismantled and disabled!
Remember, children: Any regime that mercilessly beats and abuses their own
wives and daughters in the name of bettering their society is one guaranteed to
fall and the world is always better off when they do.
The days of reckoning approach…
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