Colonel Richard Kemp, the former commander of the British military forces in Afghanistan, spoke to Israel National News - Arutz Sheva about the assassination of longtime Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Friday.
"Israel’s rapid attrition against Hezbollah in the last two weeks is unprecedented in any military campaign that I know of. Certainly, no other Western country has achieved anything even remotely close in any modern war," Col. Kemp said.
"The damage done to Hezbollah’s leadership by precision airstrikes as well as the pager attacks must be added to repeated strikes by the IDF since Hezbollah began its unprovoked war of aggression nearly a year ago. Key leaders have been progressively eliminated throughout that time as well as destruction of significant quantities of Hezbollah’s weapons capability.
Hezbollah still retains a large number of missiles and drones, as well as fighters to operate them and attempt to attack Israel on the ground. But any military or terrorist organization does depend heavily on a command structure and the elimination of so much of that will have seriously undermined the capability to launch large-scale coordinated attacks," he said.
Col. Kemp noted that "Nasrallah has probably already been replaced. But he has headed Hezbollah for over three decades and it will take his successor a long time to become anything like as effective — assuming even that he survived for very long himself.
Lower-level leaders can also be replaced but the collective knowledge and experience that has been lost so rapidly represents an immense blow to Hezbollah. This is especially true when we consider that terrorist groups in the Middle East operate on the basis of personal networks and personal connections with their sponsors — in this case Iran. There is also a psychological element for those who might be thinking of stepping up. They were stunned by the pagers episode and are reeling daily from what is befalling their bosses. How many will want to step up to the plate against the fear that they will be next."
When asked how close Hezbollah is to being permanently eliminated as a threat, Col. Kemp responded, "Israel has much more work to do before Hezbollah is effectively neutralized, and it is in the process of doing it. If they are able to maintain the current intensity of operations there is every prospect they will succeed. We shouldn’t forget also that Hezbollah is deeply unpopular among large sections of the population of Lebanon, including Christians and Sunni Muslims many of whom have been celebrating Nasrallah’s demise. It may be that some of them will take advantage of Hezbollah’s weakened state and take their own action against the group in parallel with what Israel is doing."
Addressing Iran's reaction to the damage Hezbollah has taken in the last two weeks, Col. Kemp stated, "Iran will also be shocked by what is happening to their number one terrorist proxy. The ayatollahs certainly could not have foreseen this situation or anything like it. Out of fear, Iran failed to react to the killing of [former Hamas leader Ismail] Haniyeh in Tehran. They also know their April 14th missile attack on Israel failed miserably and their proxy in Gaza is on its last legs. Taken together this may paralyze the regime. It remains to be seen how they will react to all this. One thing they will know is that they are now the subject of ridicule across the Middle East and they will find this intolerable. Not only that but they can ill afford to allow such weakness to prevail amidst so much opposition and dissent inside the country. They must now be beginning to fear for the future of the entire regime, especially if Israel turns greater attention to them."
He advised against agreeing to a ceasefire now that Hezbollah is reeling, "It is not time for Israel to 'take the win'. When an enemy is on the back foot that is the time to press forward with even greater intensity. The timid and pusillanimous critics in the US and France, who have forgotten the meaning or the need for victory should be politely disregarded by Israel as it decides on its plan of action."
When asked if a ground operation is even necessary in Lebanon given the successes of the IAF's aerial operation against Hezbollah, Col. Kemp responded, "Only the IDF and Israel’s political leaders can judge whether or not a ground offensive will be needed. That depends on two things: how much more damage can be achieved from the air and how Hezbollah reacts. I would counsel against attempting to rely on what has been achieved so far as deterrence against Hezbollah. That can only be short lived. There can be no substitute for large-scale destruction to deny the terrorists the means to continue their attacks, whatever they might wish to do."
"Decimation of Hezbollah — as well as for Hamas — is important not just for the immediate protection of Israeli citizens but also to demonstrate Israel’s strength across the Middle East both as a warning to those who would turn on Israel and also as a means of securing greater confidence among those who see Israel as protector against the common enemy: Iran," Col. Kemp concluded.
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