An overwhelming majority of Israelis support Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s negotiation positions regarding a hostage deal with Hamas and oppose anti-government demonstrations in Tel Aviv demanding an immediate deal at any price, according to a new, in-depth JNS poll.
Netanyahu’s positions are supported not only by coalition-party voters, but also by approximately one third of voters for opposition parties, the survey found.
Direct Polls conducted the survey on Monday evening both before and after the prime minister’s press conference, finding a significant disparity in Netanyahu’s favor in the latter sampling.
At the press conference, Netanyahu set out the rationale for his refusal to remove Israel Defense Forces troops from the border zone between Gaza and Egypt, known as the Philadelphi Corridor, its code name on IDF maps.
JNS asked respondents: “Do you believe Israel should support or oppose a deal that conditions the receipt of between 18-30 hostages on an IDF withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor for six weeks, during which Hamas will be able to rearm and smuggle hostages out of Gaza?”
Thirty-five percent of respondents overall said that Israel should agree to such a deal, while 62% opposed it. Three percent had no opinion.
Among coalition-party voters, 7% supported withdrawing from the Gaza-Egypt border, compared to 62% of opposition voters. Ninety-two percent of coalition voters opposed the withdrawal and 33% of opposition voters opposed withdrawing from the Philadelphi corridor.
Notably, 65% of opposition party voters polled before Netanyahu’s press conference supported withdrawing from the Philadelphi corridor, and only 57% of opposition voters polled after his press conference supported that position. Support for the withdrawal among coalition voters decreased from 8% to 5%.
The disparity between the way opposition party voters polled before and after Netanyahu’s press conference viewed mass anti-government protests on behalf of a hostage deal was even more apparent. 52% of opposition party voters surveyed before Netanyahu’s press conference thought that the demonstrations advanced the goal of getting the hostages home. 32% said that the demonstrations had no impact on whether or not a deal would be achieved that would get the hostages home. 16% said that the demonstrations decreased the chance of getting a hostage deal with Hamas.
After Netanyahu’s press conference, only 42% of opposition voters believed that the demonstrations increased the prospects for getting the hostages home. 39% said that the demonstrations didn’t affect their plight. And 19% said that the demonstrations decreased prospects for bringing them home.
61% of Israelis agree with the sentence, “Only military pressure on Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and planned military actions including hostage rescue operations can lead to the release of the hostages. 33% agreed that “Continuing IDF operations in the Gaza tunnels endangers the hostages’ lives.”
Israelis are sharply split over whether Netanyahu holds responsibility for the execution of the hostages. Opposition voters support the claim 69-28%. Coalition voters oppose it 94-6%.
Currently the deal that Netanyahu has accepted involves three phases. In the first phase Israel would agree to free hundreds of Hamas terrorists from prison and significantly draw back its forces from Gaza while accepting a six week ceasefire. Hamas in exchange would free 18-30 hostages. In two later phases of the deal, Hamas would release the rest of the hostages – alive and dead in exchange for further release of terrorists from prison and continuation of the ceasefire.
JNS asked Israelis if they believed that Hamas would be willing to release additional hostages in later phases of the deal or whether they would refuse to release them and maintain them as an insurance policy to protect Hamas from destruction. 69% of Israelis, (88% of coalition voters and 50% of opposition voters) believe that Hamas will not release additional hostages. Only 24 percent of Israelis (10% of coalition voters and 38% of opposition voters) say that Hamas will be willing to advance along the deal and release additional hostages.
In other words, 69% of Israelis believe that between 83 and 71 hostages would be left behind in Gaza indefinitely.
Hamas’s negotiating position is that Israel must remove all of its forces from Gaza including from the 3 kilometer wide security perimeter within Gaza along the border with Israel, the Netzarim corridor that separates central and southern Gaza from northern Gaza, and the Philadelphi corridor.
73% of Israelis, (95% of coalition party voters and 51% of opposition party voters) oppose Hamas’s demands. 22% of Israelis support it, (4% of coalition voters and 40% of opposition voters).
A majority of Israelis do not trust the Biden-Harris administration’s commitments to support Israel if Hamas breaches the ceasefire-for-hostages deal. In response to JNS’s question, “Do you believe that the Biden-Harris administration will permit or block Israel from reinstating hostilities and reconquering Gaza to defeat Hamas if Hamas breaches the agreement,” 38% of Israelis said the U.S. would permit Israel to renew military operations; 56% said the U.S. would block Israel from renewing its military operations in Gaza. Only 14% of coalition voters believed the Biden-Harris administration would support a renewal of operations, 61% of opposition voters trusted the administration’s support. 81% of coalition voters said the U.S. would prevent Israel from renewing its operations if Hamas breaches a ceasefire deal and 31% of opposition party voters said the U.S. would block Israel from renewing its military operations if Hamas breaches a U.S.-mediated ceasefire-for-hostages deal.
On Sunday, Arnon Bar David, the Chairman of Israel’s main labor union the Histadrut declared a general strike to shut down the economy in order to force the government to accept a hostage deal at all costs. A Labor Court ruled the strike illegal on Monday afternoon and ordered it stopped immediately. The damage to the economy from the lost work hours is assessed at 2 billion shekels.
JNS asked the public whether they believed that the strike advanced a hostage deal, had no impact on prospects for a hostage deal or damaged prospects for a hostage deal. 18% of the public said the strike advanced the cause of reaching a hostage deal. 32% it had no impact, and 50% of Israelis said it harmed prospects for a hostage deal.
The heads of the anti-government protest groups active since January 2023 and the Hostage Families Forum, which represents a few dozen hostage families have been cooperating informally since October 7. In December 2023, former prime minister Ehud Barak, who is the unofficial leader of the anti-government political groups organizing the protests called for the anti-government groups to work behind the hostages’ families. On Tuesday it was reported that Barak’s associates will begin officially cooperating with the Hostage Families Forum from now on, effectively merging the group representing a fraction of the hostages’ families with the anti-government protest movement.
JNS asked the public whether it believed that the anti-government protest groups have joined the hostages’ families groups in order mainly to help secure their release, mainly to overthrow the government or that they are seeking to advance both goals equally. 55% of Israelis, (90% of coalition voters and 20% of opposition voters) said that the anti-government groups are helping the Hostages’ Families Forum to overthrow the government.
20% of Israelis, (3% of coalition voters and 37% of opposition voters), said the anti-government groups were supporting the Hostages’ Families Forum to secure the hostages’ release.
24% of Israelis, (7% of coalition voters and 41% of opposition voters), believed they were helping the hostages’ families forum to advance both goals equally.
In light of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s open opposition to the Security Cabinet’s decision to oppose all withdrawals from the Philadelphi Corridor, JNS asked whether Israelis believe he should quit or should be fired by Netanyahu or whether he should remain in his position. 51% of Israelis said that Gallant should be fired or resign.
33%, (53% of coalition voters and 14% of opposition voters), said that Gallant should resign.
18% of Israelis, (32% of coalition voters and 4% of opposition voters) said that Netanyahu should fire Gallant.
45% of Israelis (13% of coalition voters and 76% of opposition voters), said he should remain in his position.
Similarly, 48% of Israelis believe that IDF Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Hertzi Halevy should either resign immediately or in the next four weeks and 41% believe that he should leave when the war is over. Only 7% believe he should remain in his position until the official conclusion of his term in 2025.
No comments:
Post a Comment