Despite a dramatic shakeup on the Democratic side of the presidential ticket, former President Donald Trump remains the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election, according to renowned election analyst Nate Silver. Silver’s latest forecast model gives Trump a 61.3% chance of winning the Electoral College, while Vice President Kamala Harris stands at 38.1%.
This analysis comes after a notable shift in the Democratic campaign.Joe Biden unexpectedly dropped out of the race on July 21, endorsing Harris as his successor. This move injected new energy into the Democratic campaign, with Harris’ favorability ratings climbing swiftly and her campaign raising approximately $200 million within a week of Biden’s exit.
Silver’s previous forecast had given Trump a 65.7% chance of victory over Biden. The revised model, which incorporates updated polling averages, still shows Trump with slight advantages both nationally and in most battleground states, except for Wisconsin where Harris leads. Harris’ recent surge is reflected in Silver’s model, which now predicts she has a 53.5% chance of winning the popular vote compared to Trump’s 46.5%.
Silver’s model is described as a “direct descendent” of the FiveThirtyEight election forecast, the well-regarded analytical framework he developed. Following his departure from FiveThirtyEight last year, the platform had forecast Biden as the likely winner in 2024 before suspending its projections after Biden’s withdrawal from the race.
The race between Trump and Harris remains tight as Election Day approaches. The latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls shows Trump with a two percentage point lead nationally. However, there is still a lack of comprehensive polling in key battleground states, where the contest is expected to be most fiercely contested.
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