If the negotiations with Hamas fail this time as well, the Americans will be faced with a dilemma of how to proceed, when the chances of a deal are so slim and the Democratic Party convention is starting next week. Make no mistake about it, this was never about the suffering civilians in Gaza or, alternatively, the remaining living Israeli hostages who have not been murdered yet. This has always been about winning the White House and gliding problem-free into the January 20, 2025 inauguration.
So, what will the administration do if Israel fails to deliver? Mind you, it’s always about Israel. No one expects Hamas’s lone boss Yahia Sinwar to be flexible – only Netanyahu is being ordered to give a little more. And this is not coming only from the Americans – the IDF brass are convincing themselves and anyone suicidal enough to listen that no harm could come from withdrawing from the Philadelphi corridor that separates Gaza from Egypt. They’ll sprinkle sensors everywhere to make sure the tons of Iranian weapons and ammunition waiting on the Egyptian side are not delivered to breathe new life into the expiring Hamas. And should push come to shove, no problem, the IDF is perfectly capable of retaking Philadelphi.
The Hebrew word for this kind of hubris is “Smokh.” It means, literally, “count (on me).” Israelis used to trust the IDF’s smokh. But since October 1973, and even more so since October 2023, no one does. Not even a little. Netanyahu and the majority right-wing contingency in his cabinet and coalition are well aware that once the IDF abandons Philadelphi, the war gains would be reversed.
And this is why Hamas is pushing this point above anything else. It all comes down to getting the IDF to stop punishing them in southern and central Gaza. Luckily, they’ve got a Michigan-pleasing White House on their side. Heck, they have the IDF Command on their side.