Aleppo Attack By Islamist Rebels Could Shift Regional Dynamics In Israel’s Favor

 

The Islamist attack on Aleppo, Syria, could present strategic advantages for Israel, according to Daniel Rakov, a senior research fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) and a reserve lieutenant-colonel in the IDF. In a post on X, Rakov analyzed the implications of the assault on northern Syria and its potential impact on Iran, Hezbollah, and regional powers.

“The fall of northern Syria to the rebels damages the infrastructure of the Iranians and Hezbollah there and will make it difficult for them to work to restore Hezbollah,” Rakov wrote. He argued that the conflict would force Syrian President Bashar Assad to focus on preserving his regime rather than aiding Iranian and Hezbollah efforts in Lebanon. This shift, Rakov suggested, might expand Israel’s freedom of action in Syria.

Rakov also highlighted the broader geopolitical implications, noting the embarrassment the developments are for Russia, a key ally of Assad. “The Russians were surprised by the rapid advance of the rebels from Idlib,” he wrote, adding that Russia’s limited military presence in Syria is focused on its own strategic interests rather than supporting Iran and Hezbollah.

Russia’s response has included airstrikes, diplomatic efforts to restrain Turkish support for the rebels, and propaganda downplaying the incident while exaggerating Assad’s capacity to recover.

Despite these efforts, Rakov pointed out that Russian state media has largely ignored the Aleppo conflict. Russian commentators have reportedly shifted blame for the defeat, distancing Moscow from Assad’s failure while noting Turkey’s reduced involvement in northern Syria.

The conflict has also drawn international attention, with reports suggesting that Ukraine has sent aid to Syrian rebels amid its ongoing war with Russia. However, the extent and impact of this aid remain unclear.

Rakov speculated that the instability in Syria could leave Assad vulnerable to attacks from Kurdish forces, southern rebels, or even ISIS, further weakening his regime. He also warned that while the chaos might open the door for greater Iranian military involvement in Syria, it could also lead to significant security threats for Israel if Assad’s regime collapses.

“Assad’s loss of Aleppo damages Russia’s image as a power capable of projecting influence beyond the post-Soviet space,” Rakov argued, noting that this undermines Russia’s strategic assets, including its military bases in Syria.

Concluding his analysis, Rakov stated that the rapid fall of Aleppo has exposed the fragility of both Assad’s regime and Russia’s influence in the region. However, he cautioned that this instability might bring new challenges for Israel, as the power vacuum in Syria could pave the way for the rise of new military threats.