Friday, October 30, 2020

Add Florida to list of swing states where early voting data favors a Trump victory

 Republicans have closed Democrats' early voting lead in Florida by about 300,000 votes since early, in-person voting began and only trail in the state by 3 points five days before Election Day.

“Anyone Democrat feeling really confident right now should look at Florida’s early voting numbers. Republicans are having another huge day across the state,” NBC’s Joe Scarborough noted Tuesday.

Democrats carried an early voting lead in Florida into Election Day in 2016 as well only to have that margin erased by the GOP, resulting in Trump winning the state.

This year, the Democratic lead going into Election Day might have to be larger than usual. An overwhelming majority of Democrats have indicated they plan to or already have voted by mail or done early voting, while those voting for Trump have indicated they plan to vote on Election Day. As the Democrats lead continues to narrow ahead of Nov. 3, a wave of Republican voters could help push Trump over the top in the state.

“Democrats' early voting across the state is actually falling well short of what they would need to win if they lose Election Day, observed the Hill’s John Pudner. “Again, the advantage goes to Republicans in Florida.”

“Forbes polling indicates that roughly half of all voters plan to vote early, with 62 percent of Democrats planning to vote early while 72 percent of Republicans plan to wait and vote on Election Day,” Pudner wrote. “If that happened and independents split evenly (last time Trump won them), then Democrats would need to win early voting at least 70 percent to 30 percent to be on pace to barely overcome a 31 percent to 69 percent disadvantage in partisan Election Day votes.”

Democrats only have a slim 41%-38% early and mail-in voting lead in Florida as of Thursday.

The early voting results in the battleground state of Florida look similar to the numbers out of Michigan and Wisconsin, which both show Republicans leading the early vote in the states despite polls showing Trump lagging. Republicans have an even larger lead in Ohio, a swing state Trump leads in most polls. Florida’s numbers could be more accurate, as the state makes voter registration data publicly available, unlike Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio.

Trump won all four states in 2016.

One state where Democrats are hitting their expected target is Pennsylvania, which shows Democrats leading 68%-22%. Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2016, and the state is currently rated as the most likely to decide the election.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Items removed from this farce piece for balance as it's puffery from self-hating meshumodim to the Democrat religion (including the modern "orthodox" ones) who back any Democrat who hates Israel. They only bash Obama now as cover for Biden. They used to protect Obama too:

Biden Israel file 2009 on: Barack Obama often comes up. A picture emerges: a man of little innovation but a loyal lieutenant to Obama

“Kishkes haunts Obama” said Shalom Lipner, of Bibi’s office thru Obama-Biden, using Yiddish for “guts” used joltingly for non-Jews. It dates to Clinton aides, for bureaucrats with visceral feel for Israel

Unlike Obama, Biden prefers conflict behind closed doors

“Biden's worst criticism of Bibi was behind the scenes” said one asking anonymity to avoid jeopardizing relationships. “Much less public drama from Biden”

Biden vividly described seasoned politician Bibi & neophyte Obama to Michael Oren, ex-ambassador to Israel: “One comes with baggage”

An interlocutor close to Obama-Biden-Bibi is blunt: “Barack Obama is Spock” he said, asking not to be named & refers to Star Trek's Vulcan famously lacking human emotion

“There’s hardly anyone of 1973 still in politics” said David Makovsky, Obama peace envoy. “Biden knows an Israel that's not just a startup nation”

Biden would return to the Iran deal, uphold two-state & fight Israel annexing

Obama bid for Israel-Palestinian peace. Negotiator George Mitchell, despaired of no end to impasse. Biden lands in Israel to calm tension between Israel-US

The visit was almost torpedoed when a minor hack announced, in time for Biden’s visit, new housing in disputed East Jerusalem

Biden's snub was holding up dinner with Bibi & wife. Biden was then appeased by Bibi's 'regret' & pledge Israel won't build it for years

Al Solow, Obama donor & ex-chair Conference of Presidents of Major US Jewish Orgs: “Biden shmuzed a Land he knew. 45 minutes after he was set to leave, I got a tip to extract him”

Obama furiously orders strong pushback, tells Biden to condemn Jewish apts in a Tel Aviv U speech. Biden DID, then adds lip service of “unbreakable” US-Israel ties

Ross protests Obama’s diktat that Biden “condemn,” a term so strong it's for terrorists. Biden met Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who was elated by “condemn”, by US vs Israel to boot

“He took advantage of an Obama word. Abbas is pleased!” (Biden-Democrat appeasement to frame Israel as the terrorists & claim hostile words are no longer hostile. How twisted!)

Bibi enroute in 2011 to Obama, is blindsided by his policy speech, Obama envisions 2 states, '67 lines, with swaps

Bibi saw it pressures Israel to dangerous concessions - famously lectures Obama in the Oval Office on history

Tensions escalate, didn't dissipate by the time Bibi addressed joint US Congress. At Bibi's reception, Biden shows up pressing the flesh

Ross said Biden set talks with Israel with Obama ideas as base for a blurb on terms, eg “Palestine is nation-state of the Palestinian people”

It's more, Ross said, of Biden seeking lemonade from lemons — but he fails. Abbas rejects Israel's right to exist

The greatest divide in the Obama era is the Iran nuclear "deal"

Obama's 'best' way to contain Iran is no sanctions. Obama surrenders just before the vote, orders US ambassador abstain, thus the resolution passes

Biden’s prediction true: Trump condemns abstention & refuses two-state that Obama spent 8 years pining for

Shapiro, Obama's Israel ambassador monitored in real time, said reports Biden pressured Ukraine's vote for the resolution are nonsense. Biden hotly insists calls to Ukraine didn't touch on Israel (Biden denies another Ukraine item lol?)