JPPI poll finds that of 10 scenarios, only a government of Likud, Yashar, Beyachad and Yisrael Beytenu is not rejected by a majority of respondents. Opposition-bloc including haredi parties receives support of just 3%.
A majority of Israelis are dissatisfied with the election results, but the available options for forming a new government also face widespread public opposition.
The Israeli Society Index, conducted by the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) following the elections, found that of 10 possible coalition configurations examined, only one is not rejected by a majority of respondents: a government comprising Likud, Yashar, Beyachad and Yisrael Beytenu, which together hold 67 Knesset seats.
Even that option faces significant political obstacles, as it would require cooperation between Likud and parties that pledged before the elections not to join a government with it.
According to the November index, 51% of all Israelis and 57% of Jewish respondents would not rule out a coalition of the four parties. The proposed center-right government would exclude the haredi parties, Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism and the Arab parties. The survey did not examine who would lead such a government.
The findings also reveal widespread dissatisfaction with the election results. Nearly two-thirds of Israelis, 62%, said they were dissatisfied, compared with 33% who expressed satisfaction. Among Jewish respondents, dissatisfaction reached 73%, including 44% who were "not very satisfied" and 29% who were "not satisfied at all." Only 2% described themselves as "very satisfied."
The picture was reversed among Arab respondents, 75% of whom expressed satisfaction with the results, including 37% who said they were very satisfied. The results come against the backdrop of the Arab parties' record electoral strength and the outgoing coalition's loss of its Knesset majority.
Despite the differences in satisfaction levels, a large majority viewed the election as highly consequential. Seventy-five percent agreed that the vote was a pivotal event that would significantly affect the country's future, for better or worse. Meanwhile, 19% said the results would not substantially change their personal lives.
The difficulty in forming a new government stems from the fact that neither bloc has the numbers to establish a coalition while honoring all its pre-election commitments.
When asked which government they would prefer under the circumstances, the most popular option was an opposition-bloc government with the Arab parties, supported by 36%.
A national unity government comprising Likud and Yashar, alongside additional parties, came second with 23% support. A Netanyahu-bloc government joined by a party from the opposition bloc received 17%, while 14% preferred holding another election soon. An opposition-bloc government with the haredi parties, an option that has figured prominently in public debate, received just 3% support.
To examine the possible coalition configurations more closely, researchers asked respondents to select which of the 11 parties that entered the Knesset they would like to see in the government, as well as which parties they would categorically refuse to accept in a coalition, even at the cost of another election.
The three parties receiving the highest levels of support for joining a coalition were opposition parties close to the political center: Yashar with 65%, Beyachad with 63% and Yisrael Beytenu with 59%. They were followed by Likud with 50%, Religious Zionism with 44% and the Democrats with 42%.
However, examining preferred coalition partners alone does not reveal which governments would be acceptable to the public. The rejection figures highlight significant differences. The Joint List was the most widely rejected party, at 62%, followed by Otzma Yehudit at 50% and Ra'am at 45%. The Democrats were rejected by 37%, Religious Zionism by 35%, while Likud and each of the two haredi parties were rejected by roughly one-third of respondents.
By contrast, the three centrist opposition parties had particularly low rejection rates, ranging from 9% to 13%. This helps explain why a government combining them with Likud faces less public opposition than configurations involving other parties, although it does not resolve the political differences between them.
The differences between Jewish and Arab respondents were particularly pronounced on the question of party rejection.
Among Jewish respondents, 76% rejected the Joint List and 56% rejected Ra'am. They were followed by the Democrats, at 46%, and Otzma Yehudit, at 44%.
Among Arab respondents, Otzma Yehudit was the most widely rejected party, at 77%, followed by Likud at 68% and Religious Zionism at 57%. Only about one-fifth rejected the haredi parties, while rejection rates for the three centrist parties and the Democrats ranged from 5% to 17%.
Significant differences were also evident between voters from the Jewish coalition and opposition blocs. Coalition-bloc voters almost unanimously rejected the two Arab parties and the Democrats, while showing little opposition to the haredi parties.
Among opposition-bloc voters, by contrast, 85% rejected Otzma Yehudit and 57% rejected the Joint List. Rejection rates for the haredi parties and Religious Zionism ranged from 54% to 59%, while 45% also rejected Likud.
One particularly interesting finding concerns the gap between Likud voters and voters for the centrist parties over the prospect of a unity government. Only 22% of Likud voters rejected Yashar, and 27% rejected Beyachad. By contrast, 53% of Yashar voters rejected Likud, compared with 30% of Beyachad voters. In other words, opposition to a partnership with Likud is considerably stronger among Yashar voters than opposition to a partnership with Yashar is among Likud voters.
Based on the rejection figures, the researchers examined 10 possible coalition configurations, each comprising at least 61 Knesset seats. For each scenario, they measured the percentage of respondents who did not reject any of the parties included.
Only the coalition comprising Likud, Yashar, Beyachad and Yisrael Beytenu reached and slightly exceeded the 50% threshold, with 51% of respondents not ruling it out. All nine other configurations were rejected by a majority.
Nevertheless, the researchers stressed that the coalition with the lowest rejection rate would require Likud and the opposition-bloc parties to overcome political commitments made before the elections. The survey also did not examine who would serve as prime minister in such a government.
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