According to secret documents reviewed by The New York Times, Hamas had originally intended to launch the October 7 attack, codenamed “the big project,” in the fall of 2022. However, the plan was delayed as Hamas sought to secure the involvement of Iran and Hezbollah in the operation.
The documents indicate that Hamas leaders cited Israel’s internal instability, likely referencing the political upheaval surrounding Prime Minister Netanyahu’s controversial judicial overhaul, as a key reason for advancing a strategic confrontation. In July 2023, Hamas sent a senior official to Lebanon to meet with a high-ranking Iranian commander, requesting assistance in targeting sensitive sites as part of the planned assault.
While Iran and Hezbollah expressed general support for the operation, the Iranian commander indicated they needed more time to fully prepare. The documents do not specify the extent of the plans shared with these allies, but they do reveal that Hamas intended to provide more details at a follow-up meeting with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. It remains unclear whether that meeting took place.
Despite the uncertainty of full participation from Iran and Hezbollah, Hamas decided to move forward independently, partly to preempt Israel from deploying a new advanced air-defense system. Another factor driving the decision was Hamas’s desire to disrupt the growing momentum toward normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
In the two years leading up to the attack, Hamas deliberately avoided significant escalations with Israel in order to maintain the element of surprise. Leaders stressed the importance of making Israel believe that Hamas in Gaza sought peace. The documents further reveal that Ismail Haniyeh, a key Hamas figure, had been briefed on the plan. It had not been previously confirmed whether Haniyeh, who was killed by Israel in Tehran in July, was aware of the attack before it occurred.
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