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| American Nazis march in NY City, October 30, 1938 |
It’s a deeply disturbing question: will something like the European Holocaust happen again – this time in America? It comes down to understanding the warning signs of genocide and mass persecution, most notably the rising antisemitism and political instability, which gnaw at the foundation of American democracy.
Historically, the 1939-1945 Holocaust followed a distinct pattern of escalating state fascism and militarism in German-influenced Europe, while Western democracies were in decline because of economic troubles. It’s reasonable to assume that if a Holocaust were to begin in the US, it would likely not start overnight, and it will look nothing like the 1930s in Europe. It would begin gradually, and through a process that would often appear like the opposite of the European model. For one thing, while in Europe it was a resolute, aggressive leadership that drove the excitable masses, in America and the rest of the Western world, it is the masses who aggressively push the leaders.
DEHUMANIZATION AND DEMONIZATION
Jews are blamed for social, economic, and political problems, depicted as part of an Israeli cabal hell-bent on murdering the Arabs in Gaza, the disputed territories, elsewhere in the Middle East, and by extension, the entire gentile world.
Conspiracy theories on how Jews control the media and government are spreading unchecked.
Politicians traffic in coded and even overt antisemitic tropes, shifting the public discussion from healing an ailing society to identifying the ones responsible for society’s ills.
Groups and institutions that could be trusted to protect the rights of Jews will be weakened, as the courts, the media, and academia are assaulted by an ever-growing army of stooges, online and in the streets.
Authoritarianism will rise under the guise of restoring order and protecting national security, with politicians discovering how easy it is to ignore legal restraints.
NORMALIZATION OF VIOLENCE
Hate crimes will increase and be met, especially on the East and West coasts, with silence and even tacit justification from the public and local leadership.
Armed gangs and antisemitic groups will become emboldened to take control of the streets in the big cities. News of attacks on Jewish businesses, homes, and innocent pedestrians will no longer shock the system; instead, it will encourage more attacks.
Law enforcement will selectively ignore lawlessness depending on the interests of the political leaders.
Laws and policies will be enacted to restrict Jewish participation in public life, as well as ban religious Jewish practices such as circumcision and kosher slaughtering, and launch surveillance of Jewish organizations and institutions that are suspected of supporting the Israeli “genocidal war.”
Social ostracism and economic marginalization will grow, especially as many Jews, mostly Orthodox, decide to leave for Israel when they still can, while non-religious Jews reject or attempt to conceal their ethnic identity.
STATE-SANCTIONED PERSECUTION
This is where the buildup to a Holocaust becomes a discussion of how exactly an American Holocaust will ultimately materialize. As was the case with the internment of Japanese-Americans during WW2, we should expect mass detentions of Jewish “Israel sympathizers” under the pretext of national security.
Support for Israel has already dropped significantly among younger Americans and young evangelicals. In Western Europe, net favorability towards Israel is at its lowest since polling began in 2016, with negative views recorded in Germany, France, Denmark, Italy, and Spain.
There will be arrests of Jewish students, intellectuals, and politicians, as an inevitable crackdown on “pro-Zionist” dissent. This will be accompanied by official propaganda justifying extreme actions for the greater good.
And then will come the phase of mass expulsion, and possibly annihilation.
MEANWHILE, IN A SMALL COUNTRY ON THE MEDITERRANEAN SHORE
If a Holocaust-like event—mass persecution, internment, or extermination of Jews—were to take place in the United States, the consequences for Israel would be seismic.
Israel will experience a demographic surge as a result of a Jewish-American mass migration. There are an estimated 4 to 5 million American Jews, give or take, who qualify for Israeli citizenship under the Law of Return. If even half flee to Israel, the Jewish State would see its population of 7.5 million Jews burgeoning to 9 million, creating the biggest Jewish center in the world.
To deal with the absorption crisis that would result from this mass Aliyah wave, Israel would have to turn to the liberated territories and confiscate unused land in favor of settling the incoming new Israelis. The country will have to create solutions for housing, infrastructure, schools, healthcare, and national security systems in a very short time.
Israel dealt with a similar wave of Aliyah in the early 1950s, and although it was a poor country at the time, relying on some American support and German reparations, it took care of the essential needs of a million newly arriving Jews. This time around, Israel’s economy is far more robust, growing ever closer to an annual GDP of $1 trillion, and the newcomers would be much better prepared for life in the Jewish State.
PSYCHOLOGICAL AND IDEOLOGICAL SHIFTS
Zionism will be vindicated. The eruption of a Holocaust in the world’s greatest democracy will be seen as the ultimate proof of the idea that Jews need a sovereign homeland to guarantee their survival.
Right-wing Zionism will be vindicated. Israeli society will absorb the national trauma of American Jewry, with debates affecting Holocaust memories and national identity, leading to a more hardened, survivalist national ethos.
A growing segment of Israeli society will see the entire event––a US Holocaust leading to a massive Aliyah wave––as messianic. There will likely also be a wave of departure of left-leaning Israelis, offspring of the socialist pioneers of the early 1900s and the founders of the State, who will experience a social and theological crisis over the inevitable direction Israeli history has taken.
SECURITY AND STRATEGIC POSTURE
Israel will go on high alert, expecting a possible global spillover of anti-Jewish violence. The Mossad and Shin Bet might divert resources to tracking diaspora threats and neutralizing global antisemitic cells. The IDF will have to retool to both compensate for an American arms and ammunition ban and to support mass absorption of newcomers into the army in preparation for a global uptick in antisemitic attacks.
Israel will adopt a more aggressive posture toward existential threats from hostile neighbors, under the new doctrine of “it can happen again.”
With the loss of its greatest strategic ally, the US, which will collapse into fascism and become hostile to Jews, Israel will have to seek out military supplies, diplomatic cover at the UN, and access for its military products to new markets. Israel will seek new alliances with India, Russia, and China, but none could replace the strategic depth provided by the US. This might be the kick in the butt Israel needed to wean it off the American teat and turn it into a wholly independent power.
It’s also likely that Israel will become more isolated internationally and more defiant, adopting a “Fortress Israel” doctrine, focused solely on Jewish survival regardless of world opinion.
ECONOMICS AND OPPORTUNITY
Refugee absorption, increased defense spending, and the loss of US aid and trade could trigger a recession or, alternatively, a much-needed growth spurt. The American newcomers will include a huge number of intellectuals, scientists, entrepreneurs, and politicians. Their relocation will be a massive boost to Israeli science, tech, and academia, comparable to and more prosperous than the Russian Aliya wave of the 1970s and 1990s.
American Jewish life—synagogues, schools, media, culture—will be annihilated. Israel will become the only substantial center of Jewish life on Earth. The Shoah will no longer be viewed as a unique German catastrophe, but as a repeated historical pattern. This will radicalize Israeli education, political rhetoric, and foreign policy, leading to a more cohesive and united Jewish citizenry.
DON’T WORRY (BE HAPPY)
A US Holocaust would be an unprecedented catastrophe for the Jewish people—but Israel would become both their last refuge and the unchallenged center of Jewish existence. It would face immediate risks, followed by either remarkable resilience or existential transformation. The event would mark the final shattering of the Jewish diaspora, and the triumph of Israel as the only guarantor of Jewish survival.
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