Iran has ordered its proxy forces across the Middle East to exercise caution as the Islamic Republic fears an existential threat following Donald Trump’s return to the White House, The Telegraph has learned.
Officials have told commanders of Iran-backed militias to avoid provocative actions that could escalate regional tensions.
Commanders have also been instructed to maintain defensive positions while avoiding any actions that could be interpreted as aggressive by US forces or regional allies.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s 85-year-old supreme leader, even appeared to be wearing a flak jacket at the funeral of two judges who were gunned down in Tehran last weekend – reportedly over fear of attacks.
With his robes bulging at unusual angles, Khamenei was pictured this week standing over the coffins of the men said to have been assassinated inside the supreme court by an “infiltrator”.
“Forces and allies in the region have been instructed to act with caution as [the regime] feels an existential threat with Trump’s return,” one senior Iranian official told The Telegraph from Tehran.
“In Iraq and Yemen, forces have been told not to target any American assets, and if they do, they are explicitly warned against using Iranian weapons,” the official added.
“They have been told to keep defensive positions for a while and to avoid any actions that might provoke the Americans.”
The clerical regime has been significantly weakened by Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah and the fall of key ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria in recent months of war in the Middle East.
Its threat to Israel through Hamas and Hezbollah has been cut off, and it has also lost Syria as a weapons smuggling route for its proxies.
“The fall of Assad has intensified fears [in the regime],” the official said. “There are now fears they may not be able to hold onto the country after witnessing what happened to Assad, which no one here expected.”
“A large-scale operation is underway to identify and arrest Israeli spies and infiltrators and there are concerns that they may have infiltrated high-ranking offices.”
Iran’s vice president acknowledged successful Israeli infiltrations last week and blamed the impact of international sanctions for the Islamic Republic’s vulnerability to Israel.
Mr Trump’s return was another major blow to Tehran. He has discussed bringing back his “maximum pressure” campaign and when asked about military strikes against Iran, he said: “Anything can happen.”
“We’ve got to stop some wars, there are some stupid things going on,” Mr Trump said on the day of his inauguration.
“Israel would’ve never been hit on Oct 7,” he added. “Iran was broke. Anyone that bought oil from Iran ... China passed, everybody passed.”
The team Mr Trump has chosen for his second term, including his secretary of state, is expected to take tougher actions against Iran.
The Biden administration had also warned Mr Trump that Iran may pursue building a nuclear bomb after being weakened by conflicts in the Middle East.
Iran is much weaker domestically than eight years ago when Mr Trump first came into power, with its legitimacy at its lowest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution following the 2022 protests.
“There have been extensive discussions about Trump and the available options to counter any possible strike on Iran,” the Iranian official said.
“The main topic of discussion has been how to avoid starting a war with him and how to prevent him from starting one with us.
“He has been making threats, and they are being taken seriously here, as they already know him,” he added.
The official explained that talks about acquiring the S-400 air defence system from Russia have also intensified.
Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s president, pushed for the defence system delivery to Iran during his meeting with Putin last week, The Telegraph understands.
Islamic Republic officials have also softened their rhetoric about striking Israel in retaliation for their attacks in October on Iranian military sites since Mr Trump’s election victory.
A foreign ministry said this week that it hopes the new Trump administration adopts a “realistic” foreign policy “based on international law and respect for the interests and desires of the nations of the region, including the Iranian nation”.
However, senior Iranian officials have expressed objections to engaging in talks with the US.
Esmaeil Khatib, Iran’s intelligence minister, warned against talks with the Trump administration, arguing such negotiations could disadvantage Tehran.
“If calls for negotiations dominate us, we will lose,” Khatib said this week, accusing the US of pressuring Iran under “imposed negotiations”.
Khatib said the US will likely intensify pressure through “attractive offers, enticements, and threats”, amid expectations.
Iranian media remains split too. Reformist outlets suggest potential diplomatic openings, while hardline publications reject engagement.
The ultimate responsibility for deciding whether Iran will talk with the Trump administration or not rests with Khamenei.
Meanwhile, ordinary Iranians grappling with 50 per cent inflation and mounting economic hardships express hope that Mr Trump would bring an end to the regime.
“People are struggling to afford basic necessities, with many unable to buy meat because it’s too expensive,” one Tehran resident said.
“Many see Trump as a hope and believe he might rescue them from this situation – any alternative feels better than the current situation,” he added.
Analysts say Khamenei faces four difficult years ahead that could reshape the region.
They believe the supreme leader must either lift his ban on talks with Washington or risk an all-out war with the US amid growing domestic and international pressure.
A shopkeeper in Tehran said: “Prices are increasing every week, and fewer people can afford what they could buy two years ago – we received new prices for cigarettes today, and there was a similar price [rise] just three days ago.”
The Iranian rial plunged to a record low this week, with the US dollar surpassing 840,000 rials and one pound approaching 1 million rials, which is expected to drive up the prices of essential goods even further.
The shopkeeper said: “People are cursing the regime and hoping that Trump will do something – either sit down and talk with them or bring an end to their rule.”
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