Who will win the midterms? Ask bettors, not pollsters

 

Some pundits say that Democrats will win the midterms.

MSNBC tells us, “Democrats are seeing momentum headed into midterms.” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi claims, “We will hold the House by winning more seats!”

Really? Want to bet?

This fall, CNN’s Douglas Brinkley said, “There is a blue wave going on right now.” Michael Moore agreed: “There is going to be such a landslide” of elected Democrats.

At the time those predictions were made, people who bet on elections believed Republicans had better than a 70% chance of winning back the House.

Whom should we trust?

We can listen to:
No. 1: People who bet.
No. 2: The media pundits.
No. 3: Polls.
No. 4: Professional election forecasters.

Among forecasters, Nate Silver has the best track record. Early this week, his FiveThirtyEight website gave Democrats a 55% chance to hold the Senate (it’s since dipped down to 52%). The Economist’s forecasters give Democrats even better odds.

But I don’t believe them.

I believe the people who bet.

Hochul Orders City Employees To Remove Zeldin Signs

 

When Jewish ‘honor courts’ Post WW2 Tried Jews as Kapos

 

Jewish police detaining a former kapo who was recognized by former concentration camp inmates in the Zeilsheim Displaced Persons camp, Germany, ca. 1945. 

In the wake of World War II, many Holocaust survivors in Europe and Israel grappled with a desire for revenge. Some turned to improvised “honor courts” for relief.

Created within reconstituted Jewish communities and displaced persons (DP) camps, the tribunals had no jurisdiction outside of the Jewish community.

Active until 1950, the informal judiciaries handed out punishments ranging from bans on holding public office to banishment from the community.

“The courts tried survivors who were accused of having acted immorally toward other Jews and allegedly having helped the Nazis in their genocide,” said historian Laura Jockusch, who spoke about honor courts during a United States Holocaust Memorial Museum virtual event on October 26.

Estimates on the number of alleged “collaborators” put on trial vary, but the Jewish community in Poland alone opened 175 files and prosecuted 25 Jews as collaborators.

In German DP camps, where thousands of survivors lived, American authorities allowed honor courts and commissions for “liberated Jews” to “purge fugitive collaborators from the ranks of the Jewish community,” said Jockusch.

Historians estimate up to 200 people were tried in DP camp-based proceedings.

Ezra Friedlander Sends Yiddish Message that States That those Exposing Maimonides Hospital Are "Liars!"

 

MUST READ! pic.twitter.com/uK5MB2TMZU

— Ezra Friedlander (@EzraFriedlander) October 26, 2022

Hochul Invited to Monsey "Tuchis-Lekker" Conference

 

Zera Shimshon Bereishis

 

Watch: Plain-clothed agents abduct Iranian protesters

 

Elon Musk completes Twitter takeover, begins firing woke execs

 

Let that Sink In 

Elon Musk finally completed his $44 billion Twitter takeover deal, firing the company’s CEO and financial chief and ending a lengthy tug-of-war with its board of directors just before a key deadline, according to a source close to the situation.

Musk took the struggling social network private late Thursday, ousting Chief Executive Parag Agrawal and Chief Financial Officer Ned Segal, according to the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Bloomberg News reported early Friday that Musk plans to take over as Twitter’s CEO — at least on an interim basis.

It wasn’t immediately clear who would replace Segal as CFO.

Agrawal and Segal were in Twitter’s San Francisco headquarters when the deal closed and were escorted out, sources said. Musk had accused them of misleading him and Twitter investors over the number of fake accounts on the social media platform.

Musk also fired Vijaya Gadde, Twitter’s top legal and policy executive, and Sean Edgett, general counsel, according to the Wall Street Journal.

CALL THE FAKE DOCTOR! Jill Biden to Campaign for Threatened NY-17 Rep. Maloney

 

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the Democratic congressman from NY-17 on the precipice of a stunning loss to Republican Mike Lawler is calling in the doctor for help. Dr. Jill Biden, who is a teacher, that is.

The First Lady will campaign with the embattled congressman this Sunday in Mount Kisco in an effort to save the head of House Democrats’ campaign arm from an embarrassing defeat. Biden will also attend several other events in support of Democratic candidates in New York.

Earlier this week, the Cook Political Report moved the Maloney vs. Lawler race from “lean Democrat” to “toss up,” a sign of how difficult an election cycle 2022’s midterms is for Democrats.

Republicans have thrown massive amounts of money at the campaign as confidence rises that they could take out the powerful Democrat. In turn, the DCCC, which Maloney leads, has made a $605,000 ad buy in the district to help him secure his seat.

“It will be quite a feather in their cap to knock off the DCCC chair,” Democratic strategist John Reinish said. “He is a very effective burr in their collective saddle, so the idea that they could knock him off would be one that would be very tantalizing.”

Why Did The Israeli Bus Driver Cross The Road?

 

The story of the bus driver who crossed the road that is circulating in Israel has restored some people’s faith in the kindness of bus drivers.

The protagonist of the story is Moshe Biton, a bus driver for the 65 Egged bus line, which travels from Pisat Ze’ev to Givat Shaul in Jerusalem.

A Facebook user, Ravit Shalom, wrote the moving story on Facebook: “This morning, on bus 65, an elderly blind woman got on the bus and tearfully told the driver that the day before she waited a very long time for someone to help her cross the street and no one paid any attention to her.”

What did Biton do? When he reached the woman’s bus stop, he stopped the bus and patiently escorted the woman across the street.