It’s Thursday, March 12, and the thirteenth day of Operation Roaring Lion. Here are the latest developments while you were asleep:
Hezbollah refuses to go quietly into the night. Last night the terror group launched its largest barrage since the November 2024 ceasefire, sending 200 missiles toward Israel—80 of which never made it across the border. The attack was less an act of aggression than a statement: a declaration that Hezbollah intends to fight to the end.
Operation Roaring Lion has now officially surpassed Rising Lion in both length and destruction. With four times the firepower Israel and the United States have struck more than eight times as many targets in the same twelve-day period. I’m not sure about dogs, but i think this confirms a lion’s roar is worse than its rise.
Iranian opposition sources report that Israeli and American drones flew over Tehran last night, striking checkpoints set up by Basij personnel and killing ten member in the process. The checkpoints were recently established to control the population and suppress the possibility of protests. According to one state media outlet, “the enemy is trying to open a new internal front.” They are likely correct.
The intelligence branch of the IRGC reportedly threatened members of the Assembly of Experts—the body responsible for selecting the Supreme Leader—as well as their family members, in order to force them to choose Mojtaba Khamenei as the next leader. Today marks the third day since the election of the IRGC’s candidate and there has still been no contact.
This morning, satellite imagery revealed three large craters at an Iranian nuclear site, following strikes that most likely occurred on March 9–10. The facility, used for experiments related to nuclear weapons development, had recently been reinforced with a layer of concrete and earth. That did not appear to be enough to stop a Massive Ordnance Penetrator, likely dropped by American B-2 bombers, though that remains unconfirmed. If anyone was wondering what became of the remains of Iran’s nuclear program, this may serve as an answer.
Now, on to the details.
“On my own behalf, and on behalf of my brothers in the Hezbollah Shura Council, the leadership, and the mujahideen of the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon, we renew our pledge to you.” That was the message Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem sent yesterday to Iran’s still–missing-in-action Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Qassem wasn’t satisfied with paper. He decided to publish his declaration in Israel’s skies last night. Hezbollah launched its largest barrage since the 2024 ceasefire. Scraping together the remnants of its rocket arsenal south of the Litani River, the terror group managed to lob around 200 rockets at the north over the course of several hours—around 80 of which did not even cross into Israeli territory. The attack was meant to coincide with renewed long-range Iranian missile fire toward Tel Aviv, as a reminder that there is still life left in the smoldering ruins of the Iranian axis.
The worst damage Hezbollah’s rockets inflicted last night was to northern residents’ evening plans. In the three-hour attack, aside from some property damage, the rockets amounted to little.
Hezbollah wasn’t expecting mass destruction—they were hoping for something more than impotence, still that wasn’t the barrage’s primary purpose. The attack was a statement, one that Israel didn’t expect: We are more loyal to Iran than we are afraid of Israel.
This declaration can be interpreted in one of two ways: a zealous loyalty to Shiite resistance or a pragmatic realization that if Iran is toppled, Hezbollah is in for a slow and painful death.
Either way, Hezbollah has committed to Israel-assisted suicide, and Israel should adopt the Canadian approach and help it reach a dignified end.
To complete the procedure, Israel’s leadership will have to pop its head up from the security bunker beneath IDF headquarters. At the moment they have one location on their mind: Tehran. They do not seem to understand how much the events in Lebanon are eroding public perception—and how they may also erode, in the eyes of the axis of resistance, the remarkable achievements of Roaring Lion.
Most of the resources are being invested in Iran—and that is perfectly reasonable. But if this war comes to an end and Hezbollah is sitting on the northern border, the victory 2,000 kilometers east of Tel Aviv may be eclipsed by the new Hezbollah rocket zone 100 killometers north.
Hezbollah is lucid about its strategy but delusional about the world it operates in. It isn’t fighting to destroy Israel; it’s fighting to restore the old rules—where it sits on the border and decides when to jab Israel without paying a price. The delusion is believing those rules survived October 7.
So what must Israel do?
In simple terms: Move the border.
Advance 18 miles north into Lebanon to the Litani River, find a loudspeaker, aim it at Beirut, and announce: We will not leave until Hezbollah is disarmed. Meanwhile, reduce Hezbollah infrastructure north of the river to ash and dust.
But here is the twist that makes it different from Israel’s last Lebanese security zone: not a single resident returns until the demands are met.
At the peak of Israel’s adventure in Lebanese security in the 1980s and 1990s, 180,000 to 200,000 Lebanese lived south of the river, about half of them Shiites. That population birthed Hezbollah and sustained its guerrilla campaign against Israeli forces. Had the area been empty, I imagine Israel would still be there today.
Also unlike the 1980s, Israel is making demands of a Lebanon theoretically capable of ensuring security.
Today, Lebanon’s president, Joseph Aoun, called for direct negotiations with Israel to settle the matter. Aoun criticized Hezbollah for giving “no weight to Lebanon’s interests or to the lives of its people” and warned it was pushing the country toward “the collapse of the Lebanese state under aggression and chaos.”
In Lebanon it takes bravery to criticize the terror group, but the bravery needed is less verbal and more military. Short of occupying the entire country, dismantling Hezbollah cannot be done by the IDF alone. Lebanon will need to step up. I imagine having 300,000 angry displaced citizens and IDF soldiers waving at President Aoun from the other bank of the Litani will provide a strong incentive to stop procrastinating.
If Hezbollah learns anything from last night’s attack, it should be this: They read the wrong testament. When slapped, Israel does not turn the other cheek.
by Amit Segal
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