Mullas More Powerful Than Ever! Iran Declares Total Victory! Will Control Hormuz

 

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From the Financial Times

As Iran’s state television blasted out victory anthems after announcing the deal with the US, a new narrative began taking shape in Tehran: the regime believes it has not only survived its greatest crisis in decades, but emerged stronger.

Within the highest ranks of the Islamic republic, nobody would deny Iran is nursing devastating losses. US and Israeli strikes destroyed crucial infrastructure, took the lives of about 3,500 civilians, and killed supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior military commanders.

But regime insiders, Iranian analysts and western diplomats in Tehran agree on one thing: the war failed to bring the radical transformation sought by Iran’s enemies. In fact, the regime, which at the start of the year appeared to be at its most vulnerable, seems more confident than before the war began in February.

“The US made a big mistake. It awakened the sleeping dragon,” said a regime insider. “We paid a huge price, but we activated capacities that we had previously hesitated to use.”

Years of economic hardship, public discontent and the deadly unrest of January had convinced many, both inside and outside Iran, that the 47-year-old theocracy would struggle to survive a full-scale confrontation involving the US and Israel. Two years of regional conflict had dealt devastating blows to Tehran and its proxies.

Now, it has managed its leadership transition and taken charge of a priceless geopolitical weapon that it previously hesitated to deploy: asserting control over the narrow waterway through which one-fifth of global oil and gas passed before the war.

It has also struck energy infrastructure and riled Washington’s allies in the Gulf, while the US and Israel have failed to convince Iranians to rise up against the regime.

“The war fitted perfectly into their ideology and what they had been preparing for over decades,” said a senior western diplomat in Tehran. “It strengthened them.”

The grip over the Strait of Hormuz has become a point of pride. Tasnim, a news agency closely aligned with the Revolutionary Guards, proclaimed: “From now on, no player can define the security order in west Asia without taking Iran’s role and power into account.”

The deal announced on Sunday extended an April ceasefire with the US for 60 days, allowing for the gradual reopening of the strait and the lifting of the US naval blockade on Iran’s shipping. The agreement envisages negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for a phased easing of sanctions, dependent on progress and a final deal.

But diplomats caution that some of the most contentious issues remain unresolved.

Before the war, some western officials believed Iran might ultimately agree to transfer its stockpile of highly enriched uranium — close to weapons-grade — abroad. That option now appears politically impossible in Tehran, analysts say, given how much the postwar mindset has changed.

The deal instead would commit Iran to dilution of all its enriched material at a minimum under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Some in the Iranian establishment are more reluctant to declare outright victory given the negotiating challenges ahead, noting that everything agreed in the framework deal on Sunday is reversible.

“Victory is when our achievements are converted into lasting gains,” said the regime insider. “Victory is when Iran’s right to enrich uranium is recognized, our enriched uranium remains inside the country and the US role in the region shrinks to zero.”

Perhaps the most significant outcome of the conflict, at least at home, was the demonstration of institutional resilience. The death of Khamenei, who had towered over the republic for 37 years, did not trigger paralysis as some had feared within the regime.

His son, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, succeeded him in a wartime transition that actually minimised the factionalism that might have erupted in a time of peace. For years, opposition activists had denounced the prospect of hereditary succession.

Since taking office, Mojtaba Khamenei has remained entirely absent from public view, communicating only through written statements. Many Iranians have yet to hear his voice, let alone see him address the nation on television.

Yet there have been few visible signs of organized resistance to his rule.

“Under normal circumstances, such a succession might have provoked protests and even bloodshed,” said Sahar, an anti-government businesswoman who asked not to be identified by her real name. “But he is in charge and most people barely notice it. Unlike his father, he doesn’t dominate public life.”

The new leadership has quietly continued a policy of social relaxation aimed at placating the urban middle class. That has led to increasingly visible changes, from further easing of mandatory hijab requirements for women to live music in cafés and women performing solo or dancing in public.

Iran’s political system has also displayed cohesion on critical decisions regarding war and peace in recent months, despite some opposition from ultra-hardliners, who have accused the negotiators of treason and pushed to continue the conflict.

Pro-regime loyalist groups have, meanwhile, maintained a visible presence in public squares across the country in a demonstration of vigilance against renewed unrest.

Authorities have at the same time carried out executions linked both to January unrest and to accusations of wartime espionage. The crackdown has sought to project strength — but also highlights continuing anxieties within the system about its long-term stability.

Meanwhile, the painful economic consequences of the war are only beginning to emerge.

Damage to energy, petrochemical and industrial facilities will require years of reconstruction. This comes on top of an economy struggling with a year-on-year inflation of about 84 per cent. Some Iranian economists warn that the full impact of wartime disruptions has yet to be felt, fearing that inflation could accelerate.

Even supporters of the government acknowledge that the US Navy blockade exposed Iran’s vulnerabilities.

“It wasn’t only the US that was trapped in this war. We were trapped too,” said another person close to the establishment. “The blockade was economically more damaging than the military campaign itself. Iran needs it lifted, whether through war or through peace.”

Nor has the war erased the deep frustration felt by many Iranians who once hoped the conflict might bring political change.

“Trump betrayed us more than previous US presidents and made our situation even more complicated,” said a yoga instructor who had hoped for regime change. “The Islamic republic can claim victory. But many of us don’t share that feeling. We feel exhausted, frozen and abandoned by everyone.”