At the start of Operation Rising Lion in June, Iran was operating at 100% of its launch capabilities. The operation ended with 33 fatalities in Israel. Since then, Iran’s launch capability has been significantly reduced
Without minimizing any loss of life, Israel possesses what is likely the best and most effective air-defense system in the world — and I don’t use superlatives lightly.
An interception rate close to 90% is almost unimaginable, and certainly unprecedented on a global scale when facing ballistic missile launches of this magnitude.
Beyond that, most potential launches from Iran are prevented in advance by proactive Israeli Air Force strikes — often before the launches even take place, and sometimes before the missiles or launchers are deployed in the field (there is clear data on this, though we won’t go into it here).
In addition, even though the Iranians have improved in this area since the attacks in April and October 2024, they still suffer a significant failure rate of roughly 20%–30% of the ballistic missiles fired toward Israel.
Finally, any missiles that do get through encounter our protected rooms and shelters. These are so effective that even if a missile with a half-ton warhead lands about 10 meters away — or even closer — there is still a good chance that those inside a protected room or shelter will survive.
In other words, your building — and even your apartment — could take a direct hit from an Iranian missile with a fairly large warhead, and you would still have a reasonable chance of surviving.
*Bottom line:* Israel is not alone. Follow Home Front Command instructions, and your chances of being harmed will be very low.
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