Key updates in the Israel and Iran conflict: What you need to know

 

If you're just joining us, the conflict between Israel and Iran shows no signs of abating after Iranian missiles rained down on Israeli cities in a heavy overnight onslaught four days after strikes were launched on Tehran.

Here are the main updates you need to know:

• Israeli authorities say 24 people have been killed as a result of Iranian missiles including 11 since midnight after attacks in the cities of Tel Aviv, Haifa, Bnei Brak and Petah Tikva. Iran says Israeli strikes have killed 224 people.
• US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee revealed the US Embassy suffered 'minor damage' amid the barrage of missiles which rained down on Israel Monday morning.
• The Israeli Air Force has claimed it has established full control of the skies above Tehran and has destroyed a third of Iran's ballistic missile launchers.
• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has vowed 'we will hold our ground' as he urged people in the country to unite against Israel.
• Videos circulating online appear to show some Iranians in Tehran and Karaj chanting slogans against Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Republic.
• Iran is preparing to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), an international pact aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons.
• US aircraft carrier USS Nimitz is heading west towards the Middle East after leaving the South China Sea this morning.

How much damage has Israel inflicted on Iran's nuclear program?

Israel's strikes on Iran have targeted several of its nuclear facilities, as  the Islamic republic is seeking to develop nuclear weapons.

Experts told the AFP news agency that while the attacks have caused some damage to Iran's nuclear program, they are unlikely to have delivered a fatal blow.

Here is an update on Iran's nuclear sites as of today:

• What is the extent of the damage?

Israel's operation included strikes on Iran's underground uranium enrichment sites at Natanz and Fordow, and on its Isfahan nuclear site, the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said, citing Iranian officials.

A key, above-ground component of Iran's Natanz nuclear site has been destroyed, including its power infrastructure.

Agency chief Rafael Grossi said Monday that there has been no indication of a 'physical attack' on the underground cascade hall containing part of the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant and the main Fuel Enrichment Plant. However, power loss at the cascade hall 'may have damaged the centrifuges, the machines used to enrich uranium.

• Can the program be destroyed?

While Israel can damage Iran's nuclear program it is 'unlikely to be able to destroy it,' Ali Vaez, International Crisis Group's Iran project director, said, arguing that Israel does not have the massively powerful bombs needed to destroy the fortified, bunkered facilities in Natanz and Fordow.

Destroying those would require US military assistance, added Kelsey Davenport, an expert with the Arms Control Association. She also stressed that Israel's unprecedented attack cannot erase the expertise Iran had built up on nuclear weapons, despite killing nine Iranian nuclear scientists.

• What are the risks to the Iranian population?

The IAEA has not detected any increase in radiation levels at the affected sites.

'There is very little risk that attacks on Iran's uranium enrichment facilities would result in a harmful radiation release,' said Davenport.

But an attack on the Bushehr plant could 'have a serious impact on health and the environment', she added.

• Is Iran close to developing a nuclear bomb?

After the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018 from a landmark deal that sought to curb Tehran's nuclear activities, Iran has gradually retreated from some of its obligations, particularly on uranium enrichment.

As of mid-May, the country had an estimated 408.6 kilogrammes enriched to up to 60 percent - just a short step from the 90 percent needed for a nuclear warhead.

Iran theoretically has enough near-weapons-grade material, if further refined, for about 10 nuclear bombs, according to the definition by the Vienna-based IAEA.

Tehran has consistently denied ambitions to develop nuclear warheads.

Where is Iran's Supreme Leader?

Donald Trump is said to have already vetoed an Israeli opportunity to kill Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei since the conflict erupted on Friday.

But Tehran's 86-year-old supreme leader will still be fearing assassination, hiding out in 'as secure a location as they can manage' as Israel continues to target high-ranking officials with deadly precision strikes across the country, onlookers believe.

Speaking on the BBC's Newscast over the weekend, The Economist's defense editor, Shashank Joshi, assessed that Khamenei would likely avoid any public appearances as his remaining loyalists work desperately to keep him out of Israel's crosshairs.

'I think they'll be concerned that Israel has clearly penetrated them inside out, so they will be looking to all possible corners from how to keep him safe, perhaps moving him from place to place,' he said.