“There’s Nothing Waiting for the Chareidim in the Opposition

 In a candid interview with Arutz Sheva in Hebrew, veteran chareidi political analyst Yisroel Cohen unpacked the growing tensions between the chareidi parties and the Netanyahu-led government, explaining why, despite knowing they have little to gain from the opposition, chareidi MKs may still choose to walk out.

“There’s nothing for them outside,” Cohen stated unequivocally. “In realpolitik terms, the chareidim have nothing to look forward to on the other side. The days when Gantz said, ‘Bring me a blank paper and write whatever you want and I’ll sign it,’ are over — and that’s because of October 7 and the close alignment between the chareidi parties and the right-wing bloc. The messaging coming from Gantz, Lapid, and Yair Golan makes it clear: there’s nothing waiting for the chareidim in a different coalition.”

Still, Cohen acknowledges that the threat of leaving the coalition is not empty rhetoric. “There’s a deeply held chareidi belief that they cannot be part of a government that brands lomdei Torah as criminals or draft dodgers,” he said. While expressing his own sorrow over the widening cracks within the religious bloc — a bloc he says still agrees on 80 percent of the issues and shares the same beliefs — Cohen lamented that, since the horrors of October 7, the relationship between the chareidim and the religious Zionist camp has become increasingly strained, especially around the issue of the draft.

He recalled how, in past decades, the political left would talk about donning a shtreimel if it meant achieving peace. Today, however, Cohen observed, the left has shifted sharply in a progressive and anti-religious direction. Against that backdrop, he invoked the words of Maran Rav Elazar Menachem Man Shach zt”l, who spoke of the enduring alliance between the chareidi world and the traditional and peripheral communities of Israel.

Yet even as the chareidim feel they have remained loyal to Netanyahu through repeated elections, they now question whether that loyalty was a mistake. “The Likud, Religious Zionism, and Ben Gvir’s party all got what they wanted. The chareidim? They were pushed aside by Netanyahu — again and again.”

Pressed on whether going to the opposition wouldn’t itself harm Torah study — given that Gantz, Lapid, Golan, and Liberman are unlikely to be better partners for chareidi interests — Cohen responded by quoting the Gerrer Rebbe, who said, “We’re not in charge of Heaven’s calculations. Hashem has His own ways to protect the chareidi public, even if it’s in the opposition.” Beyond that, Cohen added, there’s a fundamental red line: “We cannot accept being part of a government that defines Torah learners as criminals.”

Looking ahead, Cohen said there’s also a strategic recalibration taking place. “Some in the chareidi leadership believe that their alliance with the political right has eroded their deterrent power. Maybe, by stepping out — if not now, then in the long term — they can reestablish themselves as a decisive swing vote.”

Asked whether chareidi leaders are concerned about how they’ll be perceived by the broader Israeli public if they bring down a government during wartime, Cohen acknowledged that some rabbanim do worry about that perception and would prefer to avoid such a move — especially during a war. “But,” he added, “they see limud haTorah as non-negotiable. It’s their core demand. And they didn’t get it, even after handing Netanyahu the 61 seats he needed to form a government.”

As for the financial and political achievements the chareidi parties have secured until now, Cohen admitted there were many. “But the sanctions imposed in the draft issue scared them — deeply. If Yuli Edelstein had been more flexible, there might have been room for a different kind of conversation, built on shared values.”

“We’re now closer than ever to the collapse of the government,” Cohen warned, “but there’s still a week. If Netanyahu rolls up his sleeves and dives headfirst into the issue, a resolution is possible. Most of the chareidi leadership isn’t looking to dismantle the coalition just for the sake of it. They just want a law that they can live with. They know the ‘dream bill’ from two years ago is no longer realistic — they understand that October 7 changed the landscape. But they’re still waiting for something.”

And what of the rumors that United Torah Judaism leader Moshe Gafni might be quietly negotiating with Gantz or Lapid? Cohen doubts it. “Given how committed the opposition leaders are to the draft issue, it’s hard to believe. Still,” he allowed, “some may feel that it can’t get worse than this — and perhaps, under a different government, the attorney general and the Supreme Court would provide more room to maneuver.”