New evidence has surfaced suggesting that the Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet that crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Wednesday was likely shot down by Russian antiaircraft fire, the Wall Street Journal reports.
The crash, which claimed the lives of at least 38 people, initially puzzled investigators who considered bird strikes and poor weather as possible causes. However, aviation experts and Ukrainian officials now believe the plane was accidentally targeted by Russian air defenses.
The Embraer 190 jet was en route from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny, Russia, with 62 passengers and five crew members aboard. While approaching Grozny, the flight unexpectedly changed course over the Caspian Sea and attempted to make an emergency landing near Aktau. Despite the crash, 29 passengers miraculously survived.
Video footage from the crash site, analyzed by aviation security firm Osprey Flight Solutions, revealed patterns of damage on the aircraft that align with missile strikes or antiaircraft fire – not a bird collision. Footage shows perforations in the tail section, which experts say resemble impacts from shrapnel or heavy-caliber rounds.
Ukrainian national security official Andriy Kovalenko concurred with this assessment, blaming Russia’s failure to close airspace over Grozny, an area where Moscow’s air defenses have been highly active due to increased Ukrainian drone attacks.
“Russia should have closed the airspace, but they didn’t,” Kovalenko said. “The plane was damaged by Russian forces and diverted to Kazakhstan instead of landing urgently in Grozny to save lives.”
In recent weeks, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported intercepting dozens of Ukrainian drones over southern Russia, including the North Caucasus region near Grozny. On the night before the crash, Russian air defenses reportedly shot down 59 drones, including one over Vladikavkaz, west of Grozny. This heightened military activity raises concerns that the Azerbaijan Airlines jet may have been mistaken for a hostile target.
Flight tracking data from Flightradar24 also showed heavy GPS interference in the region, which can obscure aircraft positions and complicate emergency diversions. Experts suggest this could have contributed to confusion during the flight.
Azerbaijan Airlines initially suggested the crash could have been caused by a bird strike, while Azerbaijan’s president said the plane diverted due to poor weather conditions. However, neither explanation fully accounts for the patterns of damage found on the wreckage.
Russian officials have not yet commented on the claims from Osprey Flight Solutions and Ukrainian authorities. Meanwhile, investigators have recovered the plane’s black box, which could provide further insight into the final moments before the crash.
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