With ten days and change to go, Donald Trump has taken the lead in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average poll of national polls.
While he may be up by only a tenth of a point (as of this writing), what makes this achievement worthy of note is two things.
The first is momentum. This close to Election Day, there is no question the momentum is with the former president. Since early August, incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris has enjoyed a steady national lead over Trump. Two weeks ago, that lead was two points. That might not sound like a lot, but it those two points were the average of all the national polls, a lead as stubborn as it was steady. And now, at the precise time a candidate wants to be surging, Trump is. Currently, he sits at 48.4 percent to Kamala’s 48.3 percent.
This happened not due to an outlier but because Trump has closed the gap with Harris in a number of polls.
Two weeks ago, Harris led by +1 in the Emerson poll. Now they are tied. Three weeks ago, Harris was +3 in the NY Times/Siena poll. Today they are tied. Last month, Harris was +1 in the CNN poll. Today, they are tied. Just a few days ago, Harris was +3 in the TIPP poll. Today they are tied.
The second reason this matters is that it is unprecedented. This is Trump’s third run at the presidency, and never before has he held anything close to a lead in the RCP national average in the closing days of the campaign.
Four years ago, on this same day of the campaign, the polling average had Trump down 7.8 points to Joe Biden.
Eight years ago, on this same day of the campaign, the polling average had Trump down 5.4 points to Hillary Clinton.
It’s still a close race, but there is little doubt he is in better shape than she is.
I check RealClearPolitics as obsessively as the next guy but it's not worth much. National numbers don't mean anything. It's about Electoral College numbers. Harris could win California and New York by 99% which means a decent lead in national numbers but all Trump has to do is win the rest by 1% and he's in.
ReplyDelete