Statistician Nate Silver on Friday released his latest 2024 presidential election forecast, which shows former President Donald Trump at 61.5 percent and Vice President Kamala Harris at 38.3 percent.
The rise in Trump’s chances of 15.4 percent is a flip from Silver’s forecast on August 23, when Harris’s chances of winning were at 53.5 percent and Trump’s at 46.1 percent. Those numbers came right after the Democratic National Convention, when the vice president was still enjoying a mainstream media honeymoon.
A few weeks have passed since then, and Harris has not held a single press conference, opting for one sit-down interview with running mate Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) on the Democrat-friendly network CNN.
It's hard to know who to believe.
ReplyDeleteRight how 270towin, 538 and Real Clear Politics all show Harris ahead by 1-2 points.
Nate Silver is a Democrat, and was a long-time favorite of party pollsters. The numbers he’s reporting are unreliable, and are just meant to target and tighten voters and get them out to vote.
ReplyDeleteBesides, polls will really start to show a bit of reality after the September 10th debate, which could decide the election.