Some things never change: The Biden/Blinken administration continues to dangerously miscalculate in the Middle East — as the White House stumbles further into the Armageddon trap that Tehran is laying in Gaza and Lebanon.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is hell-bent on achieving nuclear breakout, and is doing so by playing President Biden.
Tehran “is moving toward completion of a brand-new nuclear facility 100 meters below ground, where it could enrich uranium to weapons-grade with immunity from US airstrikes,” Andrea Stricker of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies reported last week.
The new uranium-enrichment facility, located near Iran’s existing Natanz nuclear complex, is believed to be “impervious to even the largest US bunker-buster bombs, which can reach depths of at least 60 meters,” Stricker wrote.
Khamenei knows he is holding a losing hand strategically.
Israel proved that on April 18, when the IDF pulled off an undetected strike on an Iranian air defense battery guarding the Natanz nuclear plants.
Tehran got the message: Iran’s military cannot conventionally go head-to-head with Israel.
Instead, the Revolutionary Guard has re-energized their proxies to expand their kinetic attacks on Israel and on US interests.
Hamas and Hezbollah are Khamenei’s means of distraction: The mullahs are using their proxies to buy time for Iran’s nuclear weapons program — and ultimately to wage a wider war against the West.
Playing Biden for time and ransom has become an art form for Iran.
Khamenei knows Biden fears regional escalation above all, and so he intentionally escalates, overtly or via proxies, thereby forcing Washington into reactive mode.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken is finding this out the hard way.
When Blinken this month secured a 14-0 UN Security Council vote demanding Hamas accept a ceasefire with Israel, Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ military commander in the Gaza Strip, rejected it and issued a series of new deal-breaking demands.
“It’s time for the haggling to stop and a cease-fire to start,” a frustrated Blinken said. “It’s as simple as that.”
No, it is not.
Hamas is playing an entirely different game, yet the White House refuses to see it.
The game is far bigger than just Gaza and Lebanon, with goals that extend beyond the disruption of Saudi-Israeli normalization talks — it’s also a nuclear game whose rules are being dictated by Khamenei.
Oct. 7 was Tehran’s initial opening gambit.
It was designed to create an IDF over-reaction, demonize the Israelis, and foment a global anti-Israel response.
Ever since, Khamanei and his Revolutionary Guard thugs have murderously used Hamas’ “Martyrs Inc.” to pit Washington against its own Israeli allies at the devastating humanitarian expense of Palestinian civilians.
Sinwar’s predictable “no” to the ceasefire vote did not happen in a vacuum, but is part of a larger Iranian effort to achieve nuclear status, bring Israel to its knees — and undermine US interests across the Mideast.
Hezbollah, which is attacking Israel from southern Lebanon, is yet another means to those ends, and arguably the most explosive.
Since Oct. 7, Hezbollah has fired more than 5,000 missiles, rockets and drones against northern Israel, according to the FDD.
Its leader Hassan Nasrallah has ratcheted up the barrage in recent weeks, causing multiple forest fires. Last Wednesday, Nasrallah’s forces fired 250 missiles in retaliation for the IDF killing of Hezbollah commander Taleb Abdallah.
Jerusalem is nearing the end of its patience.
IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari warned on Sunday that “Hezbollah’s increasing aggression is bringing us to the brink of what could be a wider escalation — one that could have devastating consequences for Lebanon and the entire region.”
Predictably, Biden is once again in reactive mode.
On Monday, the White House dispatched special envoy Amos Hochstein to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and urge a halt to further escalation in Lebanon.
Yet again, Biden’s White House is inexplicably trying to deal Khamenei and his rogue regime a winning hand — and afford him more time to acquire a nuclear wildcard.
To paraphrase Blinken, it is high time Washington ceases to “haggle” with itself.
As Stricker and her colleagues alarmingly noted, “Tehran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for up to 13 bombs and enough for one weapon within a week.”
Enough is enough.
Let Israel finish off Hamas in Gaza and keep Hezbollah at bay in Lebanon while Washington puts an end to Iran’s rapidly accelerating nuclear weapons ambitions.
Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer.
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