There is simply no statistical way to explain how a six-seat lead for the opposition could be reversed in just four days.
This makes four years of polling look ridiculous. Those polls presented us with a picture of reality that, in hindsight, turned out to be completely inaccurate. And this applies not only to parliamentary seats, but also to public opinion regarding the war, a commission of inquiry, hostage deals, and more.
Every single pollster, without exception, failed to identify the surge in Arab voter support.
Already, we can identify two pollsters who consistently recognized Likud's strength over time: Momo Filber on Channel 14 and Tzuriel Sharon on Channel 15.
They read the political landscape more accurately, and they deserve credit for that.
Tzuriel and his team at Direct Polls came closest to accurately predicting the size of the political blocs.
As I always say: no government is better than bad government
ReplyDeletePolls all around the world is just a nice cute business. Nothing legalized in it, nothing normalized. They do what they want, as they don’t owe you or me absolutely anything. Tell them they been wrong all the way, and they will reply that you didn’t read their poll like you should.
ReplyDeletePoll guys could place a live cow with its head in the oven and its feet in the freezer and then tell you that this cow’s body is "statistically" set at the ideal temperature.
Count yourself as one of the pollsters. Didn’t you say Dati Leumi will pull off 15 seats?
ReplyDelete2:19
DeleteAs of now, they have 13 seats for sure!
Meanwhile, the wheelchair followers did not gain one seat, even with the old man's threats that they would go to hell, I guess Hell is better than listening to him!
There is only one poll that counts - yesterday's.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is that even with all their effort and all the Israelis returning home to work, the sane electorate fell short.
That means another several 100 000's will leave in the next four years. The productive revenue-generatin population will shrink even as Ben Gvri and the Chareidim laugh and shout "Leave already! We don't need you!"
And the next election will be even more lopsided towards the Corrupt Coalition, Jewish support of Israel will drop as the country becomes increasingly hostile to normal people, the Europeans and others will be handed dozens of reasons to impose sanctions, and the economy will contract until another military crisis causes it to collapse.
Oy lanu ki chatanu.
Garnel
DeleteWhat we learned was a lot. We learned that Chareidim prefer the status quo; they will never change voluntarily. They will continue to mooch off Israeli society without contributing, and change will only come when it will forced on them, which will eventually happen.
Garnel
DeleteWe are not worried if they leave; yes, let them leave.
Every year 180,000 babies are born, which means in 4 years 720,000.
Each year, approximately 180,000 Israelis turn 18
We have an average of 25,000 to 35,000 olim each year, meaning 140,000 olim in 4 years, most of them quality people
Your statement:
"Jewish support of Israel will drop as the country becomes increasingly hostile to normal people, the Europeans and others will be handed dozens of reasons to impose sanctions, and the economy will contract until another military crisis causes it to collapse."
You're presenting a chain of speculation as though it's a certainty: first support drops, then sanctions, then economic contraction, then collapse. Every step of that chain is debatable, and none of it is inevitable.
Similar predictions have been made many times over the decades. Some have come true, most have not. Israel has repeatedly faced diplomatic pressure, economic challenges, and security crises while continuing to grow and adapt. The future isn't as predictable as either supporters or critics often assume.
Repeating dire predictions doesn't make them facts. Serious discussion requires evidence, not a series of worst-case assumptions presented as foregone conclusions.
We survived COVID, survived October 7 and the Iran War and yet Israel's economy is one of the strongest in the world,
No one here is pessimistic about our future, but I would worry about Jews living outside of Israel.
The problem is that 100 000 working Israelis will leave. 100 000 Chareidi babies who will never work a day in their life or serve in the army will be born. Who will pay for that? Who will defend the country?
DeleteThere is also Europe's changing demographic to consider. The more muscle the Muslims flex, the more Europe will try to offer Israel as a korban to mollify them and delay the inevitable takeover. Never mind that once they do take over, it will be open hostility. The Chrisians are still running Spain and last year they said they would nuke Israel if they could. Imagine when Lopez is replaced by Adbul.
Israel needs a centrist government that looks at every sector and says "How can we help you? How can you contribute?"
So DIN's support for Hatzibbur Hacharedi turned out to be a smashing success...
ReplyDeleteLOL
DeleteTo Garnelie boy
ReplyDeleteWhat exactly do you mean by saying
"Jewish support of Israel will drop as the country becomes increasingly hostile to normal people?'
What does that even mean?
"normal people" have been saying this for the last 80 years; we survived stronger than ever.
Ben Gvir and Smotrich are only saying what millions are already thinking; especially after this election, everything they predicted and screamed about the Arabs in Israel is now coming to fruition.